Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Are Amabots the future of work?


There was something missing from last weekend’s NewYork Times hatchet job on Amazon.  Within the 5,400 word piece were many accounts of 24/7 performance monitoring, celebration of conflict, encouragement of backstabbing and employment practices that if not discriminatory were certainly highly biased and near unbearable.  But nowhere did the piece answer the questions I kept asking myself:  are these kind of Hunger Games working conditions necessary to drive business results in the 21st century?  Are the Amabots the future of work? 

Greedy time-travelers: buy Amazon shares back then!

Certainly, Amazon is stunningly successful and relentlessly innovative.  In the past month alone Amazon launched or expanded three new services, piloted two shows and launched another, created 1,000 jobs at a new fulfillment center, exceeded Black Friday sales with their first Prime Day and announced second quarter sales up 20% to $23.18 billion.  The Times’ slating did not have much if any financial impact.  In the first day of trading following publication, Amazon’s stock went up 124 basis points (which sounds impressive until you realize that the stock has risen 7,246 basis points this year – 75 basis points a day on average).

And, of course, customers love Amazon.  Has anyone reading this post never bought from Amazon, from their delivery services, their online media streaming, their Amazon Web Servers (AWS) or any other of their hundreds of product and service lines?   Amazon can accurately claim to be Earth’s most customer-centric company because it gives us what we want faster, sooner, now.   AWS is not just cost-effective, it’s an extremely high-quality, high-reliability business service.  We all know about the retail arm of the business.  One-click ordering and our wishes are on our doorstep.  An Amazon operations executive quoted in the Times piece was not wrong to use words like “futuristic”, “magical” and “solving a really practical need” to describe how she arranged for delivery of a sold-out Frozen doll within 23 minutes flat.  Manyof us may be intermittently appalled at some of the company’s management practices, but it doesn’t change our shopping and business sourcing.

So, Amazon is ruthless and Amazon is successful.  But is that combination necessary to achieve great results for shareholders and for customers?  Let’s look at two aspects of the Amazon way which attracted the most recent attention: continuous performance feedback and a pugnaciously up-or-out culture.

“It’s as if you’ve got the CEO of the company in bed with you at 3am”

Continuous performance feedback was dreamed of by the original time-and-motionproto-management consultants over a century ago, but it had to wait until the internet got onto portable devices to be fully realized.  Today arash of companies offer software that tracks employee activity, monitors progress against goals in real time.  Proponents claim that everyone wins: employees get increased clarity, engagement, meaning, even inspiration; the business gets to see who is really performing, and– let’s be honest – gets more work done with fewer people in a shorter time. 

There’s a lot that’s good about this kind of micro-alignment of strategy and execution, especially for product-based or remote-working companies where work consists of processing, programming, delivering on concrete objectives (it might not be so useful if you’re in a relationship-based business).  High clarity is close to a necessity for well-functioning work, and if used well these tools can help everyone know what’s expected of them, fix mistakes in good time, focus on what matters most.   If KPI’s worked well for you in the last century, chances are continuous performance feedback could help today.

But Amazon takes even this obsessive technology to new heights.  At Amazon there is a constant flow of feedback, metrics, ratings.  Some of it is just a ratcheting-up of standard practices – 60 page lists containing thousands of performance metric data points instead of a cozy Facebook-style goal progress interface.  Some of it, though is simply toxic.  The Anytime Feedback Tool differs from competitors’ products in allowing comments to be anonymized in practice (comments go directly to a manager who does not have to reveal the sources to the individual concerned).  In addition, it seems to have been designed without any boundaries to the kind of feedback that can be given – the user guidance allegedly includes sample comments such as “I felt concerned about his inflexibility and openly complaining about minor tasks”.  

It’s one thing to encourage feedback on specific work activity (“I felt concerned when he greenlighted the next stage of the XYZ project, since the tech team had not yet completed debugging of the current build”).  It’s another to talk suggestively about “inflexibility” or “earning trust”.  Such a loosey-goosey system, especially when its outputs are often used directly as evidence for performance reviews, can result in discrimination, back-biting and politicking instead of reliable performance evidence.  Never mind the legal risks, this damages the quality of the inputs on which decisions are based, a critical blow for a company that prides itself on getting ahead by dominant use of data analytics.

Amholes, but only for a season

One big use of those data analytics is informing personnel decisions: who gets a raise or a promotion, who stays, who goes.  More people leave than stay or get a raise at Amazon – a surveyby PayScale ranks the company #464 out of the Fortune 500 in employee tenure, with the average Amazonian staying just one year.  The use of stack-ranking – listing employees in a division or work-group in order of performance then firing the bottom tranche – means that turnover is institutionalized and even stars fear constantly that they will lose their jobs, perhaps by falling victim to the politics playing out around the Organizational Level Review, when performance is debated and the losers are out the door.  One particularly nasty twist picked up by the Times was the practice of sabotaging a colleague in order to get his or her talented direct reports on your own team.    As one survivor put it, “You learn how to diplomatically throw people under the bus.”

Amazon officially is fine with this level of “Purposeful Darwinism” as a former top Amazon HR exec put it.  They appear to distrust innovations in data-driven predictive hiring and instead rely on a barrage of interviews to select candidates, then measure how they perform on the job and fire them if they don’t work out.  Ex-Amazonians don’t suffer too dreadfully in the marketplace, as evidenced by the long list of ex-Amazonentrepreneurs and the number of Amazonians riding thecommunal bicycles at Facebook and learningto Zumba at LinkedIn.  

The company’s attrition rate is also not way out of line with the industry.  In the PayScale survey the 462nd ranked company was Google, with scarcely a month’s longer average tenure, and the Fortune 500 leader in employee retention was that cutting-edge Wall Street darling Eastman Kodak.  In such a fast-moving business, tomorrow’s people may be very different from those you need today and aggression may drive people to work harder, smarter and longer.  As Jeff Bezos said in his 1997 letter to shareholders, “You can work long, hard, or smart, but at Amazon.com you can’t choose two out of three”.

Perhaps most people want that choice.  Amazon has its work cut out in hiring.  Sourcing for jobs is now country-wide and more than 4,500 jobs are open at head-office.  Issues in warehouse hiring have been eased by the introduction of 15,000 robots, but gaps remain and working in an Amazon warehouse is often seen as a job of last resort.  Even a generousinitiative to pay upfront 95% of tuition for a range of qualifications leading directly to in-demand jobs has failed to attract workers – in the 3 years during which the program has been running only 2,000 people have signed up worldwide and Amazon does not reveal completion rates beyond boasting of the first employee to finish and start working in her community as a nurse. 

Luckily, Amazon does not need that many people, or the same people for more than short bursts.  Its business is changing so rapidly, talents that are essential in 2015 may be irrelevant in 2020.  And a fraction of the workforce welcomes the competition and pressure.  If Amazon can automate and distill work down so it can be done by a few pugilists, their business model may be – and, let’s face it, has been – robust.

Is Amazon the future?

Of course, what concerns all of us is the usual WIFM – is Amazon showing the way in human resource practice?  Will I have to turn into an Amabot  or an Amhole in a few years simply to keep my job?

Sadly, the answer is “perhaps”.  With the globalshift of wealth and power from workers to owners, and the spread of workplace technology in terms of robots, continuous-management software, big data analytics and increasinglyintelligent cloud robotics and deep learning systems, even highly cognitively demanding, non-routine work and tricksy manual work may be vulnerable to being digitized or, at the very least, subject to the micro-controls Amazon has introduced.

There’s also the “gig economy” factor.  With Gen Y happy to work in bursts, with the rise of Uber and with businesses getting increasingly granular about their human capital needs, it is possible that the Amazon model of working in short, intense bursts will become the 21st century equivalent of the 9 to 5.

But even if we become machines, we do not need to become monsters.  Human decency – empathy – is  a huge evolutionary advantage and it makes the world a better place to live and work in.  While we can’t expect the short-term-focused financial markets to recognize that, we can expect businesses who want to be around for the long term to take such a powerful factor into account in their strategic planning. 

To achieve that, we in HR need to show them the numbers: commission high-quality research that examines the impact of empathy in the workplace, get the right metrics in place to show the power of positive dissent and the increased productivity from engaged, supportive teams, state our case for compassion in numbers-driven and action-focused terms.  

We also need to recognize that these conditions may not apply everywhere.  In some business sectors or functions Amabots may be the right answer for everyone concerned, including the employees.   It isn't the only answer, unless we fail to investigate all the other options.  If we do, we may as well resign ourselves to a future as Ambots and invest now in a company that threatens to define workplace excellence as the ruthless exploitation of human lives.